Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Toronto
decks
9
(4.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68
34-32-2
overall winrate
51.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1367
· median 1333
· range 1159–1750
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1213
Q3 1415
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.6% | 11 | 1-8-2 | 18.2% | 26.7% | 31.3% | -8.1 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.3% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 55.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +4.1 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.2% | +7.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.9% | +27.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.8% | -18.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
